2014年7月8日星期二

For NFL-worst defenses, the trend almost always points up the following season



The Cool One takes a similarly innocuous mailbag question and turns it into a masterpiece. Its a beautifully researched piece, and required reading from start to finish. What I liked most was the destination: Cool's final paragraphs offer a strong historical precedent for hope in 2014:

    Much more interesting, at least for me, is what happened to those teams in the year following their last-place finish in yards allowed: 19 of 20 teams reduced their yards allowed (by an average of 827 yards, or 13.2%), and 17 of 20 teams improved their number of wins. The median win improvement is three wins, and that bodes well for Dallas in 2014.

As the title suggests, the Mothership's resident superscout takes a look at the safety opposite Barry Church, and declares that the likeliest candidate is J.J. Wilcox, with Jakar Hamilton running a close second. The most interesting tidbit: he feels that Matt Johnson is the most talented player in the running.

Speaking of Wilcox, Archer examines the best and worst case scenarios for the second-year safety. This appears to be more about the position than the player, as the worst case scenario is "nobody takes the job," which I guess is a worst-case for Wilcox (I would imagine his getting cut would be worse...). The best-case: Wilcox emerges as "the guy":

    Wilcox understands he has to make the step opposite Barry Church. He showed last summer he can make plays against the run and pass. He needs to add consistency, like all young players, but there is something to work with. If he can come up with a four-interception season, then the Cowboys will have their safety of the future.

Archer also offers up a best case/ worst case report on second-year tight end Gavin Escobar. The best case? Escobar hauls in 30-35 balls. The worst: the coaches place him in the Martellus Zone, where players they can trust are exiled, never to return. Me? I'm betting on the best case scenario.